Last weekend’s snowstorm reinforced a key lesson in grocery operations: weather-driven out-of-stocks peak earlier – and last longer – than the storm itself.
Looking at department-level gap data across stores on the east coast during the storm window, a few metrics stood out:
· Total out-of-stocks climbed materially 1-2 days ahead of snowfall, driven by pre-storm demand rather than supply disruption.
o Total outs rose sharply 1-2 days ahead of the storm (Jan 22-23) as customers stocked up following weather warnings.
o During peak storm conditions (Jan 24–25), total outs remained high but growth slowed.
o The day immediately after the storm (Jan 26) showed outs remaining at or near peak levels.
· On average, the on shelf availability dropped by 2.5% compared to the pre-storm period. This represents ~1000 additional gaps per store.
· Dairy & Eggs ran roughly 2x normal gap levels during the pre-storm period, making it the single largest contributor to total outs.
· Bakery and Produce gaps increased by ~50-80% vs baseline, reflecting fast-turn, high-velocity categories being hit first.
· Grocery was also hit hard in many areas where items have a longer shelf life, such as canned goods and bottled water.
· On the product level:
o The top 20 products saw a 54 percent increase in sales.
o Water volume more than doubled during the peak of the storm, with one brand climbing from 93rd to 3rd among the top 100 items sold and another moving from outside the top 100 into 9th.
o Eighteen-pack eggs moved from 49th to 10th in lines sold.
o Gallons of milk climbed from 46th to 13th in lines sold.
· During peak storm days, total outs remained elevated but growth flattened, suggesting shelves were already depleted and traffic slowed.
· The day after the storm matched or exceeded storm-day gap levels, highlighting replenishment and delivery lag as the dominant constraint as retailers struggled to get trucks to the store as cities dug out of the snow.
During the storm window, several items vaulted from outside the top 100 to the top of the basket:
· Limes — #8 overall
· Deer Park 24-pack — #9
· Pure Life 24-pack — #19
· Maruchan Chicken Ramen — #21
· White Bread — #22
· Land O’Lakes American Cheese — #25
These jumps highlight the breadth of pre-storm stock-up behavior across fresh, shelf-stable, and beverage categories.
The takeaway:
Severe weather impacts availability before alerts escalate and after conditions improve.
Winning the next storm isn’t about reacting faster during snowfall – it’s about:
· Pre-positioning inventory ahead of forecasts, especially in nonperishables
· Protecting high-risk departments with buffers
· Accelerating post-storm recovery to shorten the long tail of outs
Data makes this clear: storms are demand events first, logistics events second.
Are you ready for the next demand event? At Focal, we’re here to help you get ahead of it.
